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Demand for the steel industry in the second half of the year is not pessimistic

Views: 4     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2020-12-02      Origin: Site

Demand for the steel industry in the second half of the year is not pessimistic.

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The relevant person in charge of the China Iron and Steel Association stated that the World Bank’s June 7 report once again lowered the global economy and the economic growth expectations of major developed countries: the world economic growth rate was lowered from 2.9% predicted in January this year to 2.4%, and the US economy The growth forecast has dropped from 2.7% to 1.9%, the Eurozone has dropped from 1.7% to 1.6%, and Japan has been revised down from 1.3% to 0.5%.

There are still many destabilizing factors in the overall world economy. Britain’s "Brexit" indicates that regional economic integration and economic globalization are facing challenges, and the possibility of major changes in the world economic structure is increasing.

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The possibility of monetary and financial policy adjustments in major economies continues to increase. In the second half of the year, the European Union, the United Kingdom and the Bank of Japan are expected to launch a new round of quantitative easing and the United States will enter an interest rate hike cycle, which will have a significant impact on the exchange rate market.

At the same time, terrorist attacks and political incidents have occurred in many places around the world, and global political, economic, and military uncertainties have all increased, which will inevitably affect the international economy and trade and drag down the economic recovery.

From the perspective of downstream industry demand, most of the major downstream steel industries are not doing well. Industries such as machinery, shipbuilding, containers, and home appliances will continue the downward trend in the first half of the year, and the real estate and automobile industries will maintain certain growth.

The poor growth of private investment has weakened the role of investment in driving economic growth. The only faster growth rate is infrastructure investment, which is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year. From the perspective of downstream demand, it is generally in a weak position.

But it should not be too pessimistic. As the world's second largest economy, China's economic growth rate is still among the best in the world; China is still the world's largest steel consumer market with an annual consumption of about 700 million tons, and there is still much to be done.

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