Rebar fear of heights growing

Data show that as of November 16, the price of HRB40020mm rebar in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan to 4130 yuan/ton from the previous week, an increase of 5.1%; the main rebar futures contract rose by 70 yuan to 3852 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.9%, based on The gap widened substantially. The apparent consumption of rebar last week hit the highest level of 4,647,800 tons since the second half of the year, but the main contract fell and consolidated after hitting the highest this year of 3,888 yuan/ton. The trading volume declined, and the market's fear of high sentiment grew.

  From the demand side, the apparent consumption of rebar last week increased by 4% month-on-month to 4,637,800 tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year, which was the highest value for the second half of the year. However, due to the rise and fall of futures prices and the fear of high market sentiment, the 5-day average value of the national building materials trading volume last week was only 225,600 tons, down 11.1% from the previous month. The trading situation was average. 

It is understood that the capital situation of large-scale real estate enterprises is still good, the construction progress is accelerating, and the intensity of rush work has increased, indicating that the demand for the supply line is good. 

The infrastructure funding situation has been eased compared to before, and the rush for major projects is also very obvious. Although due to the La Niña phenomenon, the market is generally expected to have a cold winter, but from the current situation, the temperature in the north is generally good, and the impact of construction operations is relatively small. Therefore, it is expected that the demand will remain at a relatively high level before the end of November.

To sum up, after experiencing the rapid rise in the price of rebar, the market's fear of heights has increased, and the disk performance is high. Under the combined effect of environmental protection production restrictions and molten iron flow, the future rebar output will further decline. 

At the same time, the rush of real estate enterprises and infrastructure construction will continue at least until the end of November under the premise of good weather, and short-term supply and demand will be slightly tight . 

Therefore, if the future stock drop speed can be consistent with the current, market sentiment will be further improved, and rebar may oscillate.